The effect of the trade war between USA and Europe would be devastating on living standards for European public and that would worsen the human rights situation of minorities in EU.
Bashy Quraishy
Secretary General – EMISCO -European Muslim Initiative for Social Cohesion – Strasbourg
Thierry Valle
CAP Freedom of Conscience
To understand the present situation of U.S.A – European relations, we must look at the earlier history of both parties.
History books tell us that early U.S. was born out of Europe, especially the British empire. The American revolution of 1776 came as much because of the desire to manage its own affairs but also against European colonial control.
That resulted in a distant and sometimes tense relationship throughout the 19th century.
The U.S. focused on expanding westward while Europe was busy with wars (Napoleonic Wars, imperialism) and often saw America as a young, secondary power. In the meantime, economic ties between the two were limited, yet growing.
In the early 20th Century, USA and Europe were allies in World War I against Germany and its allies. The U.S. entered late but helped save Europe from German domination. President Woodrow Wilson tried to reshape Europe after the war (e.g., League of Nations) but failed at home. That was the start of isolationist period where the U.S. pulled back and Europe descended into turmoil just as the rise of fascism and rise of Nazi Germany under Hitler. Then came the Nazi era and the USA involvement in World War II and the birth of the “West” took place.
After the defeat of Hitler, U.S. helped rebuild Europe through the Marshall Plan in 1948 onward through a huge financial aid to revive Europe and stop communism. For that the U.S. and Western Europe formed a tight military and political alliance against the Soviet Union. NATO was established in 1949 whereU.S.pledged to defend Europe by stationing military troops in Germany, Italy, the UK, and elsewhere.
Thus democracy, capitalism, and human rights became the foundation of “the West.” and its shared values brought USA and Europe even closer. After the Soviet Union collapsed, Europe and America worked together on globalization, NATO expansion, Balkan’s peacekeeping, and spreading democracy. Although, it was not always a smooth sailing and some public friction over the Iraq War in 2003 did appear, but overall, the relationship stayed strong and mutually beneficial.
In short, for a long time U.S. often ledand Europe just followed. But with the establishment of EU, Europe grew more confident, economically stronger, and politically more united.
Then came President Trump’s first term in 2016 with tensions and transformation of relations.
U.S.-EU relations soured because Trump questioned NATO, launched trade threats, praised Brexit, and criticized Germany and France in public. President Biden tried torepair ties, but the trust was shaken. Europeans are now debating: Should we keep relying on America or build our own independent power by increasing trade and import/export with Russia, China, and BRICS countries.
Future of U.S.- EU Relations under a Second Trump Term
After Trump won a second term in 2024, U.S.- EU relations have quickly become more strained. Here’s why:
Trump has historically viewed the EU as a competitor rather than a partner, especially on trade and defence spending. He criticized NATO allies again for not spending enough on defence and insisted that the U.S.commitment to NATO should not be taken for granted, thus raising security concerns across Europe. One of the tactics, he used it to favour bilateral deals over multilateral alliances, pushing individual countries for separate deals, undermining EU unity.
On climate issues, human rights, and global governance, we can also see more divergence between the U.S. and EU thinking and policies. The EU is being forced to try to assert more strategic autonomy in response.
Effect of a trade war on European living standards:
Since President Trump has escalated trade wars — for instance, by imposing new tariffs on European goods (especially cars, steel, and agriculture) — the long term effects on European living standards could be felt on many areas, namely:
- Higher consumer prices (due to tariffs on imported goods) leading to inflation.
- Manufacturing sector struggles, particularly in exporting countries like Germany, France, Italy, reducing jobs and wages.
- Slower economic growth across the EU, possibly widening inequality between richer and poorer regions.
- Knock-on effects could also harm public services funded by taxes from thriving industries, weakening healthcare, education, and social security systems.
- Over time, living standards could stagnate or decline, particularly in economies already under pressure, like Italy, Spain, and Eastern Europe.
Far-right populism and nationalism can get out of hand due to economic stagnation
Experience shows that even in rich countries, the declining living standards often create an increase in the existing ill-will, racism and violation of basic human rights of ethnic and religious minorities, leading to hate crimes, violence, and riots as we have seen in UK, Germany, and other countries in recent times.
Looking at the present and future Human Rights situation of minorities in the EU, we cansee animportant yet increasing negative trend. For example, there are reports of:
Rising far-right populism in parts of Europe (e.g., Hungary, Italy, France, Germany) which has led to a tougher environment for minorities, especially asylum seekers, refugees, migrants, Muslim communities, Jewish people, and LGBTQ+ communities.
Increase in discrimination, hate speech, and even violence has been reported in some areas, although the EU tries to counteract this with human rights laws and court rulings (e.g., from the European Court of Justice).
Although the situation varies from country to country, Scandinavian and Benelux countries generally have stronger protections, while Eastern Europe is more problematic.
Soon after taking powers, President Trump has been using his emergency executive powers to arrest, detain, withdraw permanent work permits or student visas to expel critics of his political policies. Even those who took part in demonstrations or disagreed publicly or on social media with USA practices have been made to pay a heavy price. This inward-looking trend in USA under President Trump would undoubtedly embolden nationalist forces in Europe, potentially worsening minority rights conditions if EU institutions don’t push back forcefully.
So, the relationship between USA and Europe has moved from colonial rebellion to uneasy friendship, to a lifesaving alliance and strategic partnership to the current uncertainty.
The bond is historically deep, but today it is under serious strain and the next few years could redefine it dramatically. Without preparation, U.S.-EU relations could seriously deteriorate under Trump 2.0. But if Europe acts smartly by building defence capacity, staying united, and forging lasting new alliances, it could actually come out stronger and more independent in the long run.
Bashy Quraishy
Thierry Valle
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First published in this link of The European Times.
